Arnold's Ramblings
Wednesday, November 24, 2004

Happy Thanksgiving!

As expected, the Dow, S & P and NASDAQ are all up since President Bush was re-elected. It would seem to me that for the Dow, 10,800 should be the high, but we could have a slight new high up to about 11,000. The NASDAQ could hit 2,400, but 2,600 would be the absolute ultimate high.

Gold is making new 18 year highs. Two to three to four new highs per week. I still believe that Gold will rise to at least $550/ounce by year end 2005. The only real negative is that Gold stocks are not rising as much as they should be. Ordinarily, the stocks lead the metal. Now the metal is leading the stocks.

The Dollar is making near daily new lows and this will continue indefinately.

10 and 30 year Treasury Bonds are under pressure, but not yet falling significantly. At some point soon this too will begin in earnest.

The economy is holding but I still see a recession starting the end of the 2nd quarter 2005 into the end of the 3rd quarter 2005. It shouldn't be pretty.


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