4/23/03
Hi,

1. This past Sunday (April 13, 2003), I went to the Festival Mall (a very large flea market here in South Florida) in order to purchase Skin-So-Soft Bug Guard Towelettes (they were the greatest insect repellant ever). Unfortunately, Avon, in it's wisdom, has stopped making this product. Why do I mention this meaningless afternoon activity?

Historically on any Sunday in April there is no parking anywhere near the "mall." On this Sunday, parking was readily available. Further, there were four or five open vendor slots, as well as several open slots in a row opened up. I never saw any open slots for vendors before. More importantly, the entire time I was there, pianos (cash registers) were not singing (ringing sales) at all. Also, most of the smallish vendors have been replaced by large vendors occupying two to ten booths.

If Festival Mall is doing no business, this does not bode well for the economy, in whole or in part.

2. Another indication to me of business strength is waiting time at restaurants without reservations. Here in Boca three years ago, dinner at most restaurants required waits of well over an hour during the week and two hours on weekends - the higher the cost, the longer the wait. Today the waiting times are inverted. The less the cost - the more likely there will be a wait (usually fifteen to twenty minutes). Rarely other than in special circumstances is there waiting at all in the most expensive restaurants.

Everywhere I go I see reduced business activity. In shopping, stores selling merchandise seem to stumble, restaurants do better. The most fascinating retail stores are the Starbucks. They appear to do really well. Two iced lattes list for $7.00. How can anyone be dumb enough to pay that much? Yesterday at CityPlace in Palm Beach, I bought two. Yes, I am that stupid.

Watching television, the level of boredom is profound. All there is are news and "reality shows." Why? Because they are cheap to produce. Of course, whether sitcom, drama, news or reality-based programming it doesn't matter. Whatever it is, it stinks! There's no creativity. Monday, Fox premiered a new reality show hosted by Monica Lewinsky. My understanding is Ms. Lewinsky's talents are non-verbal - and are not generally aired on network TV. As with all the other reality shows - who cares? Apparently we as a Nation have won the Iraqi War, we have replaced Saddam Hussein - now we need to focus on producing some television that people (live people) actually want to watch.

And on the Economy. We need a huge tax cut, top rates of 20% or so, or only a consumption tax. The net worth of Americans in 2002 reduced collectively over THREE TRILLION DOLLARS. A $350 billion tax cut over 10 years just won't make up for three trillion dollars in one year.

As a reminder: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html.

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.

- posted by Arnold @ Wednesday, April 23, 2003

 
4/11/03
In our euphoria regarding our impending victory in Iraq, the U.S. Stock Markets have not shown much excitement. This does not appear to be good news. The markets must be focusing on the real economy - and the real costs to maintain U.S. dominance in Iraq.

With the realization of a U.S. victory in Iraq, there may be a momentary (1 - 3 month) economic improvement, but it is doubtful it will be of any major significance. Once reality sets in the economy will return to "UGH."

Major layoffs are announced daily - Stanley Works: 1000, Nokia: 1800, etc. Profits are still falling - earnings warnings are at record levels and some companies, even after warning, are still missing lowered expectations. And this is still with present day GAAP, once FASB actually tightens up accoutinng standards, watch out! Many formerly profitable companies will no longer be so.

Gold remains the buy of a lifetime - Buy gold stocks NEM, ABX, AU, HM and BGO. Prices of both Gold and Gold stocks should rise dramatically from these levels - never to be seen (present levels) again!

The dollar, after some recent stability should resume its downward spiral, taking Gold up and bond prices down (yields up). Short term interest rates should stay low even with expanding long term rates.

In summary, nothing has really changed in Arnold's Ramblings Forecast - Stocks are going lower, Gold is going higher, the dollar is going lower, long term bond yields are going higher and the economy is going nowhere!

As a reminder: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html.

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.

- posted by Arnold @ Friday, April 11, 2003