2/19/03
I still believe that before the Dow breaks thru 7200 (7197 was the actual low) there will be a rally - the last gasp rally. If I am wrong, when the Dow breaks 7200, it will go straight to 6600 then 6000. The Nasdaq would have a similar result, breaking its October 2002 low as well down to 1000.

The only really positive company situation recently announced was Dell, with sales up over 25% and earnings up over 35%. Unfortunately this is not suggesting healthy results for the computer industry, everyone else is on a downward slope.

It appears to me that the real estate market has stalled - as I have already stated - and we are now heading lower. In most markets the high end properties (1 million and above) are already down over 20% - this includes South Florida, New York City, San Francisico, Silicon Valley and most already high-end markets. Next in rotation will be $500,000 properties, then $250,000, then basically all real estate will be lower. As with stocks there may be a few properties unaffected, but I am not smart enough to pick which few.

The Dollar continues its decline, yet 30 year and 10 year bond yields have been declining. At some time soon this has to reverse. At that point there will be rising yields in 10 and 30 year Treasuries. But in the short run, short term Treasuries will be unaffected.

Gold is still dropping, so far by $35 per ounce from the high. Gold should hold $340 per ounce. Buy Gold stocks - NEM, ABX, AU & BGO on this decline.


As a reminder: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html. The information to get onto our email list is there. Also, our permanent home, http://www.arnoldsramblings.com is up and running, stop by and take a look!


Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Wednesday, February 19, 2003

 
2/10/03
I must tell you I am confused. On one hand we have what appears to be imminent war with Iraq; and on the other hand the French, Germans and Russians devising a plan which delays, no removes any need for war. We have terrorist alert at the second highest level in the U.S.

Yet layoffs are continuing, bankruptcies are continuing. As public companies report earnings, some show earnings gains, but few show increased sales. I find the retail earnings most interesting, with sale declines ranging up to 15% year over year, they are showing increased earnings. How is this possible? They claim cost cutting, but virtually every retailer has resorted to heavy discounting, which would decimate their given profit. Go know, or more precisely, go figure.

Within all this negativity - I still see good trading range for the dow 7200 - 9000 (and we very well could rally back towards 9000) and Nasdaq 1200 - 1800 (ditto rally back towards 1800).

We should have bottomed below 6000 for the Dow and below 1000 for the Nasdaq by August 2003; but all this noise may put it off even longer. The net result may be a sharp strong rally (with the lure of Iraq being resolved), with the suggestion that the Bear market is over and the lows are in place. All in an attempt to lure more money into the market and slaughter more apparently defenseless individual investors.

Gold is retreating. You should have taken profits if you are trading, or holding. There should be a terriffic re-entry point soon. Gold should hold about $340 per ounce.

As a reminder: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html. The information to get onto our email list is there. Also, our permanent home, http://www.arnoldsramblings.com is up and running, stop by and take a look!

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Monday, February 10, 2003

 
2/5/03
SPECIAL ALERT!

Gold prices have soared above $375 towards $386 today (Wed. February 5, 2003). It seems to me that if you are a trader - you would want to consider taking profits now and wait for a re-entry in your gold stocks at lower levels. If you are not a trader, you may hold onto your present position, as it should come back.

We are in very dangerous times both economically and geopolitically.

Let me attempt to explain an issue for which I receive a great deal of grief. I am neither a Republican nor a Democrat. I don't support Bush - specifically. In terms of this present tax proposal from Bush, assuming his numbers are correct, it would benefit the economy by $660 Billion over 10 years, or $66 Billion per year. The losses sustained in the stock market alone are already $6 to 7 Trillion and that's in the U.S. alone - If you add in U.S. holders of foreign stocks, the losses are closer to $10 Trillion. So the Bush stimulus package offers less than 1% of the stock market losses alone.

©2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved

- posted by Arnold @ Wednesday, February 05, 2003