12/19/03
The Dow has exceeded my target of 10,200. The next stop would be 10,600, then 11,000. I just don't see the Dow reaching 10,600, but the power of this move is unmistakable. The talking heads are all bullish. This is not a good sign. Clearly we are topping, the question is where the top will be.

Gold is around $411 per ounce. The Gold stocks are falling on new multi-year highs. This normally indicates that the metal will start to correct. Usually the stock action leads the Gold bullion price. Again time will tell. And with Gold any major world event could change Gold's direction. As a positive short term, the capture of Saddam Hussein did not - by days end - keep Gold prices down.

As the economy is concerned, so far Christmas has not been good for retailers. We will readdress this issue later after Christmas final sales are released.

-- As always: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html.

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Friday, December 19, 2003

 
12/8/03
Gold has finally closed for two days over $400 an ounce. As I write this Gold is $409 an ounce and should rise up to maybe $417 - 420 an ounce before year end or shortly thereafter. Completing this rise (should it happen) Gold should correct down to $360 - 370 or so.

The Dow Jones is in the 10,000 range, not yet closing at or above 10,000. As previously stated, I still seriously doubt we will close above 10,200. The NASDAQ is testing 2000. Should it close over 2000, we may get to 2200 - but again highly doubtful, January 2004 should be a down month.

Long term interest rates are starting to drop again. The clear and definite direction for interest rates in 2004 is up, especially long term rates.

While my intent is not to be political, the economy as previously stated will be strong through the 4th quarter into the 1st quarter of 2004, maybe the first half of 2004. Then the economy will start to slow down and ultimately by year end 2004 return to no growth or worse.

My own observations of retail sales on Black Friday and after do not correspond to the reported data. I saw stores slow and no really significant activity.

-- As reminder: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html.

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Monday, December 08, 2003