10/21/03
The Dow Jones has reached our minimum target of 9,800 and still could go to 10,000 or 10,200 or so. Watching the talking heads (except Jim Rogers) they can't agree as to whether the Dow will break the old high of 11,722 or just go to 11,000. The few commentators who are cautious believe we may have a 5 - 7% drop in the Dow (500 - 700 points) which will be the definitive buying opportunity for Dow 12 - 15,000 within months. We just don't believe that.

Gold is hlding in the 370 - 372 area while the Gold stocks are performing fabulously. BGO is now over $3.00 and up over 200% from our recommendation several months ago!

The economy is poised to do well in the short run - until Christmas or thereafter. But by next summer, stagnation and recessionary feelings should return. I do a sort of survey of restaurants and stores. The restaurants where we used to have to wait, no more. And stores? They're begging for business; not a good sign. Further retail vacancies on Worth Avenue, Palm Beach - October 18, 2003 (less than two weeks before season) had 5 or 6 stores out and maybe 20,000 sq. ft., and various malls now have 12 - 20% vacancy currently, about two months from Christmas. These are not favorable indications to me.

-- As reminder: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html.

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Tuesday, October 21, 2003

 
10/8/03
It still appears that we are headed for 10,000 Dow and 2100 NASDAQ. That should be the final blow-out high and then down we go to test the lows. The action of today (Wednesday), is sloppy, but I still believe we will get a spike up. Time will tell. The employment numbers of Friday should be the initial impetus.

Gold dropped 13.70 to 370 on Friday and is rising back. Gold broke up towards $400 an ounce but fell back. Last week the gold stocks were still performing really well. BGO has not really backed up as much as I expected - it bottomed at 2.30 on Friday and closed on Friday at 2.44. Should Gold exceed the previous highs it is clearly a major buying opportunity.

The economy has shown some minimal strength, but there is a great deal of conflicting data in the numbers. I doubt the "strength" will last past Christmas 2003. The election next year looks like a runaway for Bush unless Hillary Clinton enters to run against Bush. Then the election will be interesting. Otherwise, Bush could win in a landslide (as Reagan did in 1984 - the polling data was the same at this time in 1983).

Another interesting factor will be California. With Gray Davis recalled and Arnold Schwarzenegger the new Governor by landslide, that would imply a Bush win of the electoral votes in California in 2004. If so, no one, even Hillary Clinton could beat Bush.

-- As reminder: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html.

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Wednesday, October 08, 2003