2/10/03
I must tell you I am confused. On one hand we have what appears to be imminent war with Iraq; and on the other hand the French, Germans and Russians devising a plan which delays, no removes any need for war. We have terrorist alert at the second highest level in the U.S.

Yet layoffs are continuing, bankruptcies are continuing. As public companies report earnings, some show earnings gains, but few show increased sales. I find the retail earnings most interesting, with sale declines ranging up to 15% year over year, they are showing increased earnings. How is this possible? They claim cost cutting, but virtually every retailer has resorted to heavy discounting, which would decimate their given profit. Go know, or more precisely, go figure.

Within all this negativity - I still see good trading range for the dow 7200 - 9000 (and we very well could rally back towards 9000) and Nasdaq 1200 - 1800 (ditto rally back towards 1800).

We should have bottomed below 6000 for the Dow and below 1000 for the Nasdaq by August 2003; but all this noise may put it off even longer. The net result may be a sharp strong rally (with the lure of Iraq being resolved), with the suggestion that the Bear market is over and the lows are in place. All in an attempt to lure more money into the market and slaughter more apparently defenseless individual investors.

Gold is retreating. You should have taken profits if you are trading, or holding. There should be a terriffic re-entry point soon. Gold should hold about $340 per ounce.

As a reminder: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html. The information to get onto our email list is there. Also, our permanent home, http://www.arnoldsramblings.com is up and running, stop by and take a look!

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Monday, February 10, 2003