1/2/03
ARNOLD'S RAMBLINGS FORECAST 2003 ISSUE

This will be our first full year forecast issue. We will endeavor to make full year forecasts. When you combine them on December 31, 2003, those that are correct are of course fine those that aren't...

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL (DJIA)
ARNOLD'S YOURS

12/31/02 close 8342
High for 2003 9000
Low for 2003 5200
12/31/03 close 6400

NASDAQ

12/31/02 close 1336
High for 2003 1550
Low for 2003 700
12/31/03 close 1000

GOLD (per ounce)

12/31/02 close 348
High for 2003 475
Low for 2003 330
12/31/03 close 456

YIELD 30YR BONDS

12/31/02 close 4.78%
High for 2003 7.50%
Low for 2003 4.63%
12/31/03 close 7.40%

GDP FOR THE YEAR 2003

I believe we will have a return to recession by the 3rd quarter of 2003.

For those who consider this forecast to be depressing, 2003 should be the bottom of the stock indexes for the next 3 to 4 years. So the forecast really is upbeat!

The economy should stay in a tight range of up or down 2% GDP for the forseeable future; entering recessions, coming out of recessions, basically stagnant; with ever increasing unemployment and falling real estate prices. Real estate prices are now dropping at all levels except $250,000 and below -- and those prices will start heading lower as well.

Any of you who like to predict December 31, 2003 final numbers certainly may do so by placing your predictions next to mine and then emailing it back. Next January 2nd or 3rd we'll compare results to see who did the best job of predicting the future.

NOTE: Arnold & Miriam will be on vacation from January 5th to January 12th (Cruising). Should you have any questions or needs, address them to either Kim or to Michael. We will be in daily contact by email from the ship.

Arnold

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc. All rights reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Thursday, January 02, 2003