3/5/03
Technically the Dow gave a short-term sell signal Tuesday at the close (March 4, 2003). If the DJIA does not start rising soon, then 7197 is the next stop, breaking 7197 we're heading for lows in the 6600 range, then 6000 (or less).

Economic stagnation continues. The dollar keeps falling. This is the reason that we are looking to purchase precious metal (gold) stocks (NEM, AU, ABX, BGO, etc.) While the dollar continues to fall, gold has held in the 340s and is now back to the mid 350s. This is the last opportunity to buy gold stocks at these values.

With the declining dollar, it is unbelievable that we are still at or near record lows in 30 and 10 year Treasury Bonds. Soon this will change.

Last month's PPI indicated a potential raging inflation, though the CPI was .3. With the Fed(eral Reserve) throwing money into the system, the risk of inflation continues.

There are essentially two models for future economic activity: The Japanese model - which so far I have followed. The other choice is the Argentinian model - high inflation and large drop in GDP. The Japanese model drags out the inevetable recession over 15+ years. In the Argentinian model basically it is over in 2 to 4 really bad years.

I still believe the Japanese model is more likely, but effectively it will be one or the other.

Real estate prices are clearly moving lower in Manhattan, Fairfield County (CT), Southern Florida and California. If you plan to sell within the next 3 years, I urge you to sell this spring (2003).

As a reminder: For all of you who are passing Arnold's Ramblings on to friends, family members, enemies - whoever, now you can provide them a fresh copy, direct from the source! Ask them to go to http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/NavLinks/Subscribe.html. The information to get onto our email list is there. Also, our permanent home, http://www.arnoldsramblings.com is up and running, stop by and take a look!


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- posted by Arnold @ Monday, May 05, 2003