6/18/03
Now that the Dow has closed over 9200 for two consecutive days, the next stop is 10,000. The NASDAQ should not exceed 1800 - certainly not 2000.

I am personally concerned that the Dow and NASDAQ, but the Dow in particular have come much too far much too fast. It makes no sense to me (not that it has to make sense to me). The market does what it wants, when it wants. If we rally to 10,000 and then drop back below 9200 again in the short-term (which is the only logical possibility), then that would re-confirm a bear market, technically and then we would go back to 6000 and below.

What I find particularly disturbing is that this entire rise is all hype. There are no positive economic numbers, just hope and potential. My view is that now that the Dow has closed over 9200 for 2 consecutive days more, the Dow will move towards 10,000, then at the peak of euphoria, reverse down and break through 9200 on the downside and move towards 6000 or less. But anything is possible.

Gold is still holding between 350 and 370 and the gold stocks are still in a tight range, but during the decline from 370 to 350s, the gold stocks have held. Further, gold has not fallen much in the face of a rising Dow. That would be favorable for gold and gold stocks.

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- posted by Arnold @ Wednesday, June 18, 2003