7/11/03
As long as the Dow is in a trading range between roughly 9000 and 9200 it will be impossible to determine direction. Upon the breakout or breakdown above 9200 or below 9000 decisively, that will determine direction. We could have one more gasp upward to 10,000. But with or without this, we are headed lower (Dow 6000, NASDAQ 1000).

The economy is still awful, there is virtually no information regarding sales production, employment, etc. which is positive. We might have a minor improvement in GDP for the 2nd half of 2003, reflective of the tax change, but it will only be small and brief - whatever positive impact will be over by 2004.

Gold has been getting hit down to the high 340s, its trading range seems to be 345 to 375 per ounce. But, Gold stock prices have been strong, and in some cases even rising as Gold (the metal) declines.

You want at least 15% (up to 25%) of your holdings in Gold stocks (AU, NEM, ABX, BGO).

--- As a sidepoint:
We have just developed a portfolio which is largely risk averse (maximum exposure 10% of portfolio) with a combined yield of approx. 8%.

For any of you who are interested in this "model portfolio," please send us an email at:

modelportfolio@arnoldsramblings.com

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Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Friday, July 11, 2003