10/21/03
The Dow Jones has reached our minimum target of 9,800 and still could go to 10,000 or 10,200 or so. Watching the talking heads (except Jim Rogers) they can't agree as to whether the Dow will break the old high of 11,722 or just go to 11,000. The few commentators who are cautious believe we may have a 5 - 7% drop in the Dow (500 - 700 points) which will be the definitive buying opportunity for Dow 12 - 15,000 within months. We just don't believe that.

Gold is hlding in the 370 - 372 area while the Gold stocks are performing fabulously. BGO is now over $3.00 and up over 200% from our recommendation several months ago!

The economy is poised to do well in the short run - until Christmas or thereafter. But by next summer, stagnation and recessionary feelings should return. I do a sort of survey of restaurants and stores. The restaurants where we used to have to wait, no more. And stores? They're begging for business; not a good sign. Further retail vacancies on Worth Avenue, Palm Beach - October 18, 2003 (less than two weeks before season) had 5 or 6 stores out and maybe 20,000 sq. ft., and various malls now have 12 - 20% vacancy currently, about two months from Christmas. These are not favorable indications to me.

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- posted by Arnold @ Tuesday, October 21, 2003