10/8/03
It still appears that we are headed for 10,000 Dow and 2100 NASDAQ. That should be the final blow-out high and then down we go to test the lows. The action of today (Wednesday), is sloppy, but I still believe we will get a spike up. Time will tell. The employment numbers of Friday should be the initial impetus.

Gold dropped 13.70 to 370 on Friday and is rising back. Gold broke up towards $400 an ounce but fell back. Last week the gold stocks were still performing really well. BGO has not really backed up as much as I expected - it bottomed at 2.30 on Friday and closed on Friday at 2.44. Should Gold exceed the previous highs it is clearly a major buying opportunity.

The economy has shown some minimal strength, but there is a great deal of conflicting data in the numbers. I doubt the "strength" will last past Christmas 2003. The election next year looks like a runaway for Bush unless Hillary Clinton enters to run against Bush. Then the election will be interesting. Otherwise, Bush could win in a landslide (as Reagan did in 1984 - the polling data was the same at this time in 1983).

Another interesting factor will be California. With Gray Davis recalled and Arnold Schwarzenegger the new Governor by landslide, that would imply a Bush win of the electoral votes in California in 2004. If so, no one, even Hillary Clinton could beat Bush.

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- posted by Arnold @ Wednesday, October 08, 2003