3/4/04
Hi,

The Dow is still in the 10,600 range, unable to exceed 11,000. It would appear as though 11,000 will be impenetrable.
The NASDAQ appears to have topped and is heading lower, at least 25%. Long bond prices are moving in a tight range. There will probably be one Fed interest rate rise in 2004 (maybe none) but after the election, rates should start rising significantly. Gold has been basing around $400 per ounce. I still see the possibility of Gold dropping to $375 -380, but if that happens, this should be the low. The economy appears stronger into the 3rd or 4th quarter, but I still doubt we will have a sustained economic recovery.
In so far as the election is concerned, While it appears close at the moment, barring a major adverse economic effect or a terrorist attack before the election, I still believe Bush will win in a landslide.
I do not understand the Democratic candidate's rhetoric of the "Two Americas" - how the rich have their own tax laws and the rest of us have a different (more oppressive?) one; the rich have their own healthcare plans, etc...
The taxes for the rich are onerous, the top 1% of taxpayers pay 44% of all taxes paid - I do not understand this at all..

Arnold

Copyright 2003 Arnold's Ramblings Inc., All Rights Reserved.
- posted by Arnold @ Thursday, March 04, 2004